78% of Bolsonaro’s voters claim their choice is definitive, the highest rate among presidential candidates
Among the candidates running for the Presidency of the Republic, Jair Bolsonaro’s (PSL) are the most loyal to their candidate. An opinion poll* commissioned by BTG Pactual and done by Instituto FSB shows that 78% of Bolsonaro’s voters claim their choice is definitive, the highest rate among presidential candidates. The poll was released on Monday (10), and is the first nationwide survey done after the attack on the candidate.
To establish the result, the interviewers asked: “Would you say your voting choice is definitive, or it may change until election day?” Among Bolsonaro voters, 78% stated their decision was definitive, 22% said that may still change their minds and 1% said “they did not know”. Last week, the percentage of definitive voters of PSL’s candidate was slightly lower: 73%.
After Bolsonaro, the most loyal voters are Fernando Haddad’s (PT), who will probably replace Lula in the Workers’ Party (PT) presidential ticket. Among people who will vote for the former São Paulo mayor, 68% claim their voting choice is definitive, 31% said they may still change their minds and 1% said they still do not know. The PT candidate, however, have 9% less definitive voters from the last poll. In the poll released last Monday (3), 77% of Haddad’s voters said their choice was definitive.
Among people who will vote for the other candidates, Alvaro Dias (Podemos) has 62% of definitive voters; João Amoêdo (Novo), 59%; Ciro Gomes (PDT), 58%; Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), 49%; Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), 40%; Marina Silva (Rede), 37%; and Henrique Meirelles (MDB), 24%. The presidential candidates with less than 1% of voting intentions were not listed in this question measuring voting choices.
Poll was done after the attack on Bolsonaro, and listed a single scenario
The BTG/FSB poll was the first one done nationwide after Bolsonaro’s stabbing. The attack happened last Thursday (6), and the candidate is still hospitalized at Albert Einsten Hospital, in São Paulo. According to the poll, Bolsonaro has 30% of voting intentions, and four candidates are technically tied in second place: Ciro, Marina, Alckmin and Haddad. The survey was made on the weekend, on September 8 and 9, and has a margin of error of two percentage points.
The poll presented for the first time a single voting intention scenario, with Fernando Haddad as PT’s candidate. Former president Lula had his candidacy barred by the Electoral Supreme Court on the night on September 1 and can no longer be presented as the party’s candidate. Despite the party still have not announced the replacement, Haddad should be officialized until this Tuesday (11) as PT’s official candidate to the Planalto Palace.
*Poll commissioned by BTG Pactual and carried out by Instituto FSB on September 8 and 9, with two thousand people interviewed all over Brazil, by telephone. Margin of error: 2 percentage points. Confidence level: 95%. TSE registry: BR-01522/2018.
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78% dos eleitores de Bolsonaro afirmam que a decisão de voto é definitiva, o índice mais alto entre os presidenciáveis